tsl

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

• I've taken a leg in the Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QLD). The market has popped 2% off lows, the question is will it pop the full 7%?
  
  
• I'm seeing a few positive divergences and the percentage of stocks below the 50 day moving average is well below the 2002 levels. I haven't looked at the percentage of stocks below the 200 day, but I'm sure the reading should be equally distressed.
  
  
• I know people are pricing in earnings per share Armageddon in tech land -- so the question is, what happens to many of these stocks if it's really just sort of "punk" and not a total cataclysmic drop in revenue guidance.
  

Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Lewis,

Interesting times, eh what? Is gold being sold -- as the dollar trips down beneath 106 yen -- to raise cash?

For example, was the hedge fund world heavily invested enough there to make gold vulnerable as the ill effects of Lehman work themselves through the system?

Also, any current thoughts about Golden Star Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GSS), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and the NYSE gold ETF (NYSE: GLD)?

Cheers,
Minyan Bill

MB,

I think you are just seeing gold (and gold stocks) flag a bit here.

Now that we have a deal from Congress, I expect everything is likely going to melt up, but gold and gold equities should rally more (and even make new highs) given the inflationary nature of this deal. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks is likely to just be a bear market rally. This $700 bln will keep the financial system functioning, but it's not a cure-all. It's also going to further cement the stagflationary forces that are pressing in from all sides. That's good for gold but not good for much else.

As for the dollar, I'm not sure we'll see new lows because the G7 will no doubt try and support it, but we could see the DXY move back to its July lows potentially after this bill has passed.

As for thoughts on GSS, KGC, AUY, and GLD, I like them all at these prices.

Prof. Lewis

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

• We're gonna have French Toast for breakfast, French Fries for lunch and French Poodles for dinner in honor of our most recent socialist step. This is a historic juncture in the history of the world, as we edge through interesting times.
  
  
• I spoke about this on CNBC in 2003 -- yes, I had more hair and less chin -- and felt like I was screaming about a monster nobody yet saw. Now granted, I was five years early and there were a LOT of opportunities between then and now but "socialism," "stagflation" and the perils of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) were officially flagged.
  
  
• Why do I highlight this? Simple -- the issues existed five years ago and have cumulatively built since, percolating under the system, growing in magnitude, magnifying in consequence. That's why there isn't a single, simple solution.
  
  

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Goldman Sachs removed Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) from its conviction buy list. I've jested in the past that this list tends to have little conviction itself. At any rate, I'm still in a holding pattern on AAPL as it moves closer to levels that I really find attractive -- $125 and lower.

Though the stock made a nice turn off lows, AAPL appears to be assessing whether the Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) news will have a material spillover effect. Some of DELL's weakness is due to AAPL so we will have to see how much macro driven issues affect AAPL's peak season growth. Piper noted that AAPL is in need of a Mac refresh -- this is true and is in the works.

Meanwhile, T-Mobile (NYSE: DT) has announced it will start selling Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android-based phones. Time will tell if this hits the iPhone's growth, but I don't suspect it will.

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

As Brian White noted earlier, Research in Motion (ASDAQ: RIMM) plans to enter the retail market this fall with a clamshell flip version of its BlackBerry Pearl smartphone.

The BlackBerry Pearl Flip 8220 offers multimedia features such as a video and music player and a 2-megapixel camera. Like the original Pearl, the new flip model includes a Web browser and a SureType Qwerty keyboard. The new device weighs 3.6 ounces and measures about 3.9 inches by 1.9 inches by 0.7 inches. BlackBerry says the Pearl Flip offers voice activated dialing, conference calling, speed dialing, call forwarding and background noise cancellation.

"The popularity of BlackBerry smartphones has grown tremendously around the world and the introduction of this new flip phone will help extend the reach of the BlackBerry platform even further," Mike Lazaridis, president and co-CEO of Research In Motion, said in a prepared statement. "The BlackBerry Pearl Flip is a full-featured smartphone."

BlackBerry's effort to expand beyond its business base to retail consumers puts the company in direct competition with Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone and industry stalwarts Motorola (NYSE: MOT), a pioneer of the flip phone, Samsung, which isn't publicly traded in the US, and Nokia (NYSE: NOK).

T-Mobile will be the exclusive stateside launch carrier of the new flip BlackBerry. Pricing details weren't released and will be available later.

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

AT&T (NYSE: T) became the first US carrier to make Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) the default search engine on its cell phones. Default search engines on traditional web portals probably don't carry as much weight as in the past. However, being selected the default for cellular searches is stickier due to the design of many devices. Moreover, YHOO will be providing the tag along ads that appear in conjunction with these searches.

Tech is lagging this morning as the finance stocks experience the biggest lift from the Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM)/Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) news. Meanwhile, YHOO is flat and on a day like today as a story like this won't carry much weight, but over time, the fact that YHOO is making significant deals in wireless search strengthens the long term valuation case. I suspect the shares of YHOO will lag the broader market until we get renewed take-out chatter or we see better action from other technology leaders.

Meanwhile, one of my newer favorite Naz names is simply the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) itself. NDAQ has traded terribly the last few months with the decline in its own index. However, volumes and business fundamentals are quite strong a the poor market doesn't necessarily mean that the NDAQ itself is weakening. In fact I would say their market share and overall strategy has strengthened over the last year or more.

Minyanville Founder and CEO Todd Harrison dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Holy cow, can it be any slower out there? I'm taking a break from trying to set the all-time record for meetings on a "slow" summah Friday to offer a quick take on a few topics.

Will Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) get married over the weekend?

• There hasn't been any price talk on Lehman so even if it happens, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Remember Minyans, Bear Stearns was taken over too.
  
  
• There is no doubt franchise value and a lot of smart people at Lehman. There's also a lot of baggage on their balance sheet. It -- like most of the financials -- is a double-edged sword.

Minyanville Professor Minyan Peter dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

As many people have heard before, there are only two times a company issues common stock: When it absolutely has to or when it is stupid not to.

Well yesterday's issuance by US Airways (NYSE: LCC) may represent that once in a lifetime opportunity to see those seemingly contradictory principles in action at the same time. Having seen its stock trade at $1.45 not a month ago, $8.50 must seem pretty sweet to US Airways management, particularly with strong technical resistance at $10.00 providing a pretty strong ceiling above.

With airline stocks trading as the most leveraged play on the price declines in oil, I can understand why US Airways management took advantage of the window being open to issue stock. But just because the issuance window is open, doesn't mean investors should jump.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

Minyanville Professor Quint Tatro dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

There are a few things I am watching for today to give me better clues as to the internal character of the market.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT): It's off on retail numbers after the stock broke out of a four-month consolidation pattern on good volume. If the stock catches a bid, it is an indication that institutional investors are back stalking retail plays and would be bullish for the general market.

Energy ETF (AMEX: XLE): Energy has recently broken a longer term trend going back to mid-2006. It is bouncing off recent lows on very light volume. If money continues to rotate out of this sector, finding a home in the likes of retail, housing and financials, again a bullish sign. I initiated a short position in XLE this morning.

Financial ETF (AMEX: XLF): Financials have been and will continue to be the key to the market's future. After recapturing the 50-day moving average, this ETF is being brought down by AIG (AIG) and needs to regain its footing. Some consolidation is fine, but anything back below $20 would have me heading back towards the bunker.

Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB): The homebuilders continue to perk up and also remain a key to the future of the tape. They are probing green today above their 50-day moving average on decent early volume. A break here above yesterday's high going on to attack the $19.00 level is also a bullish sign.

These are things I am watching for which will give me my clues to start wading back into the market with real capital.

(Prof. Tatro has positions in WMT, XLE, XLF, XHB).

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

While Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is starting to get compellingly cheap on a valuation basis. It's also supposed to be one of those names that beats numbers like clockwork. AKAM's forward numbers are still sporting plenty of growth, but they have been lowered. Now many analysts will also lower numbers.

Unfortunately, we're not in a market that is looking forward. It's discounting companies that "could" have a re-acceleration of growth when the economy materially picks up steam again, or when the world realizes that we're not in recession/depression. The market we're in still overly punishes stocks that "feel" like they might have the bad news mostly (or fully) priced in. AKAM around $30 was feeling like a miss that was priced in. However, after hours the stock traded down a quick $5-6 and from this current level the near term direction will likely be determined by how much love is still left in the analyst community. If the analysts defend the name we could see a quick snapback.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) crushes and I still think it's the best chip name on the planet. But as stated yesterday, I was worried about muted guidance and BRCM talked margins down, while guiding rev's higher.

This morning the stock surged off its after-hours low last night and I'm not sure how it pushed down into the $24's. Frankly I wish I had been in front of my trading station at that time, even though it has drifted lower as the day has progressed.

Bottom line, post earnings I'm back to being a buyer on weakness and feel anything in the $25's is an excellent entry, long term and/or even shorter term.

Disclosure: Position in BRCM.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The Brocade Communications (NASDAQ: BRCD) deal is interesting for a couple reasons. First of all -- hey it's a deal. So yes, deals can still get done, even in this market.

Second, and more importantly, BRCD is paying $3 billion or almost exactly three times the cash and investments on Foundry Networks' (NASDAQ: FDRY) books. So in essence, 1/3 of the deal price is being funded by the liquidity of Foundry Networks balance sheet. Looking at the technology landscape, there are a whole bunch of companies that look like FDRY from a balance sheet perspective.

Also, this deal highlights the fact that even in a market full of angst, companies do look forward to see what business trends they want to exploit. My take is BRCD is seeing it wants a bigger part of the bandwidth pie going forward and the two companies may have complementary technology to help extend their current reach.

Minyanville Professor David Miller dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Miller,

I just saw news of Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK)'s and Schering Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP)'s Vytorin not meeting their goal of heart study. Approximately 40% of Schering Plough's profit comes from this joint venture. Do you think pharmaceutical companies put too many eggs in one basket? Do they have a choice?

Minyan T.

MT,

They do have a choice, but the decision is to focus only on blockbuster drugs – which are a dying breed in this age of increased focus on personalized medicine. But the study is not as big of a disaster as some are saying. The main goal of aortic thickening is not as important to this drug as reductions in atherosclerotic events, which was positive in favor of Vytorin.

Basically, MRK/SGP tried to extend the market for Vytorin by this study in a place few thought it would work. They overextended, which is the bad news. The good news is the study confirmed the drug works to reduce cardiac events related to fat in the arteries, which is what the drug is primarily prescribed for.

-Professor Miller

Editor's Note: This post was written by Terry Woo, one of Minyanville's sharpest minds AND/OR brightest bulbs. For more perspective AND/OR insight, visit www.minyanville.com.

Crude oil is trading lower for a third day in a row.

Currently there's talk out there of demand destruction in other countries (i.e. China's slowing economic growth and slowing U.S. economy). But I don't think there has been enough coverage on financial television regarding Iran.

Remember crude's breakout when the world speculated Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. And remember more upward pressure when Iran retaliated by test firing its long-range missiles.

As reported by CNN yesterday, Undersecretary of State William Burns is accompanying an EU delegation and will meet with a top Iranian nuclear official... something that hasn't happened in decades! It's a game changing event. That combined with North Korea (cooperating with the world in giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons), I believe this is simply the Iranian risk premium being taken out of the price of oil.