Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Professor Udall,
Do you have any opinions on Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT)? My wife wants me to buy everything "green". Her last "green" company idea was General Electric (NYSE: GE). I know, right? I bought a little just to quiet the noise level. I'm into a little SunPower(NASDAQ: SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR). Does Zoltek have legs?
Thanks,
Minyan L.
Minyan L.,
First, that's hysterical. Second, a word of caution: Going all green, or all of any one thing, is something I'd never advocate. If you do, you do so at your own risk, as nothing in the market is ever as obvious as it seems, especially when it seems totally obvious.
Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) shares are falling this morning after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $12.9 million, or 51 cents per share. Despite beating analysts' estimates, TSL shares are dropping as investors seem to be looking at TSL's forecast for the coming quarter, when they expect operating margins to increase by as much as of 2%. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TSL.
After hitting a one-year high of $73.06 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $25.88 in March. This morning, TSL opened at $45.12. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.67 and a high of $48.00. As of 12:05, TSL is trading at $45.65, down $3.98 (-8.0%). The chart for TSL looks bullish and steady up until today's drop.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $55 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two weeks as long as TSL is below $55 at June expiration. Trina would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
TSL hasn't been above $55 since December and has shown resistance around $51 recently. This trade could be risky if the cost of oil (and alternative energy) keeps skyrocketing over the next two weeks, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance TSL might find around $51, where it topped out in May.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TSL.
How did we get here anyway? Housing and construction companies have been crushed as the bubble burst and now investors have to make a critical decision. Do you stay and hope for a recovery or bag it and move to another position that has the potential to provide better returns?
The problem is simple to explain: Most investors hate taking a loss. In fact, most investors will look to get "even" before they sell and this attitude usually leads to greater losses, anxiety and poor decisions. The truth is that much of this can be avoided with proper risk management techniques. If any of this describes you, then consider developing a plan for risk management and a discipline that will help to protect your hard earned principal. Now, more than ever, investors need a plan. We all need a plan that includes well developed risk management disciplines, which is why I dedicate a full chapter to it in my book, The Disciplined Investor.
Monday, June 2
The week begins with the 10 am release of construction spending and the ISM Index. Construction spending is expected to continue to be weak as is the ISM.
Then we have a few housing-related earnings releases that should be of interest. Watch NCI Building Systems Inc. (NYSE: NCS). This company is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of metal products for the nonresidential construction industry. Terrific! This is a company that is suffering along with the entire construction sector...that is for sure. In fact, they company lowered the outlook for the remainder of the year back in March. It stands to reason that not much is better. The ace in the hole is the recent trend of lowering expectations and then coming out with an earnings beat. Even so, this has too much potential for problems and the sideline is a good vantage point to watch the earnings announcement, which is expected to come in with a PROFIT of 31 cents per share on $365 million of revenue. (Uh...That I would like to see.)
Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP), which saw its stock surge some 150% in 2007, didn't have such a good 2008 so far with its stock plunging about 44% year-to-date. But since setting a 52-week low of $28.19 on March 22, the stock has rebounded nicely, up over 55%. Roller coaster or what?!
Well, today, the maker of photovoltaic cells and modules said first-quarter earnings more than doubled on 76% higher revenue. Earnings reached $55.8 million, or 33 cents an American depositary share, beating analysts estimates of 28 cents. Revenue reached $434.5 million. Gross margins also expanded nicely and Suntech reiterated revenue estimates for 2008.
Early in the morning, STP shares jumped over 7% in premarket trading in response to the report but have not kept this up. Shares are now trading at $45.73, down over 1%, probably declining with the rest of the sector following Goldman Sachs's downgrade of Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) to Sell from Neutral. SOLF shares are down over 18% taking LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) down with it -- 5%, 8% and 13% respectively, to name but a few.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Trina Solar, Adtran and Elan Corp were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Friedman Billings upgraded Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) to Market Perform from Underperform citing expectations for improved FCF following the company's announcement to discontinue its in-house poly manufacturing.
Thomas Weisel believes Adtran (NASDAQ: ADTN) is in a multi-year transition where new products are able to offset continued declines in the legacy products. Shares were raised to Overweight from Market WEight, and also upgraded at Raymond James to Strong Buy from Outperform.
Goldman upgraded shares of Elan Corp. (NYSE: ELN) to Buy from Neutral to reflect their outlook for Tysabri and Bapineuzumab.
No one much liked Mr. Bernanke's comments, which were read as saying the U.S. is on its way into a recession. Results from Best Buy NYSE: BBY) were better than expected, but the Fed news overshadowed it.
The Dow dropped 50.41 points to 12,603.95. The Nasdq sold off 1.35 to 2,361.40. The S&P gave back 2.78 to 1,367.4.
Notable today:
VeriFone Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PAY) was hit after overstated profits led to the resignation of CFO, Barry Zwarenstein, and removed CEO, Douglas Bergeron, from his place as Chairman today. The income was overstated by $36.9 million, much higher than the estimated $29.6 million in overstated income.
Constant Contact, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTCT) soared today after Intuit Marketing Tools Center chose Constant's email marketing service as one of its tools. Intuit's center provides marketing tools to small growing business.
Solar energy products company Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) released very bright 3Q 2007 results on November 21. The company has been named #1 on Deloitte Technology China Fast 50. Trina Solar posted a total revenue increase of 9.7% to $82.6 million. Gross profit increased 16.7% and total megawatt shipments increased 4%. YTD, the numbers are impressive. Total revenues are up 164%, gross profit is up 92%, operating income is up 76% and net income is up 145%.
These numbers, however, must be tempered with the realization that trina Solar is still very much in its early stages of growth and most of its free cash flowe must be plowed back into the company to increase manufacturing capacity. Operating income dipped 14% in 3Q 2007, cost of revenues increased 8%, interest expense increased, as did operating expenses, administrative expenses, selling expenses and the R & D budget.
Currently, Trina Solar has a manufacturing capacity of 150 MW (megawatts) of solar modules, but plans to double the size of the company to 350 MW by the end of 2008. Trina Solar has already locked in contracts for much of its polysilicon supplies through 2013, and has already sold 100% of its first module production capacity in 2008 and 50% of its second module production capacity.
Trina Solar is in the initial stages of planning for its own $1 billion polysilicon production facility to supply its raw material needs in a cost effective manner. In addition to its existing client base in Germany, Italy and Spain, with its increased production capacity, Trina Solar is looking to expand its market base into the Netherlands, Belgium and France in 2008.
East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $36 target at B. Riley; the firm's target implies a 23.1% potential total return over the next twelve months including the stock's 1.35% dividend yield.
Tempur Pedic (NYSE: TPX) was started with an Outperform rating at William Blair, as they find the current valuation attractive for long-term investor given the company's strong position in the specialty sleep products.
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) with a Hold rating and $29 target, citing the strength of the Canadian dollar and difficult newsprint fundamentals.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Banc of America initiated shares of JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) with Buy ratings and targets of $73 and $76, and initiated Horizon Lines (NYSE: HRZ) and Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) with Neutral ratings and targets of $34 and $14.
Chinese solar power manufacturer Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is ablaze with double digit increases in net revenues, net income, operating income and the solar megawatt volume of units shipped. The company added 12 new customers in 2Q 2007 alone, and its manufacturing capacity is booked solid through the remainder of 2007. Good thing the company is in the midst of a tremendous manufacturing capacity expansion program. Currently, Trina Solar has a manufacturing capacity of 100 solar megawatts, set to increase by 50% to 150 solar megawatts by the end of 2007, and rise again to 350 solar megawatts worth of manufacturing capacity by the end of 2008. The sky really is the limit for Trina Solar.
Despite big increases in the cost of raw materials, Trina Solar's total net revenues in 2Q 2007 jumped 77% to $75.3 million, even though the average sales price dipped. Gross profit increased 49.5% to $14.2 million, and net income increased 51.4% to $7.2 million. Because Trina Solar is still in its start-up phase, operating expenses increased as did interest expense. Based on figures thus far reported in 2007, CEO Jifan Gao states FY net revenues will total $270-$200 million, and FY net income will be in the $34.5-$36.5 million range. Trina Solar has guaranteed contracts with suppliers for 90% of the necessary supply of polysilicon for 2007 orders, and 60% for 2008 orders. Trina Solar recently began dealings with various silicon reclamation companies to ensure a stable and moderately priced supply of necessary polysilicon to meet its present demand forecast.
In an odd state of affairs, most of Trina Solar's customers are in Germany, Italy, and Spain. The company does very little business in China. CEO Gao's remarks make no reference to this fact, only that climatic conditions and government policies make it easier to do business in southern European countries. Given China's unprecedented growth in demand for energy resources, one has to wonder why the Chinese government is so late coming to the solar-powered party.
There are a whole lot of things to like right now about Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), the Chinese manufacturer of solar modules. The stock opened the year at $18.86 and closed Wednesday, August 8, at $62.08. Not a bad run up. Yes, the company is basically a start up, being in production only since 2004, and investors must be able to tolerate a high level of risk with patience. But the company is expanding on a variety of fronts while still maintaining a healthy enough balance sheet. Trina Solar 1Q 2007 earnings release back in May indicated a very positive investment scenario (the 2Q release is scheduled for August 23).
Despite the fact that the 1Q figures pertained to the winter quarter, generally a slow time for solar technology companies, Trina Solar posted a 10% increase in net revenues, to $42.5 million, from the previous quarter, but a staggering 194% (not a typo) increase from 1Q 2006. Gross profits from the quarter increased 5.3% to $9.5 million, and net income increased 7.3% to $4.7 million. Bear in mind Trina Solar posted these figures despite higher prices for raw materials and a decline in per unit price. Demand for solar technology continues unabated. Trina Solar shipped 17% more units by volume in 1Q 2007 than in 4Q 2006. That increase in volume meant Trina Solar produced and shipped 300% more solar watts in 1Q 2007 than 1Q 2006, and has plans to accelerate increases in both unit and watt volume.
Trina Solar is still in a rapid expansion phase, as is only to be expected from a company dealing in newer forms of technology. The company recently completed testing on its new line of increasing efficient solar modules and plans to market these modules to new and existing customers in Germany, Spain and Italy. At full manufacturing capacity, Trina Solar expects to produce 50 million solar watts with this product line. CEO Jifan Gao forecasts that Trina Solar will ship 87-80 million watts worth of solar modules in FY 2008, generating net revenues in the $270-$300 million range. Perhaps the wider investment community will hear of Trina Solar during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.
As the hubris of non-democratic nations like Venezuela and Iran builds, feeling more manly as they receive windfall profits from higher oil prices, U.S. brain power once again looks like it will triumph.
While it will take decades to replace our dependence on foreign oil, the powerful results reported by First Solar Inc (NASDAQ: FSLR) and Sunpower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) plus others point to the first stages of finding serious solutions for alternative fossil fuel sources.
First Solar reported first quarter revenue of $66.9 million and net income of $5 million, smashing Street estimates. The stock was up over $5 in yesterday's trading.
Sunpower, which we have been blogging about for a while, was up slightly in yesterday's trading along with Trina Solar Ltd ADS (NYSE: TSL) and JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd ADS (NASDAQ: JASO). After decades of the alternative power stocks floundering, these stocks have products, revenue and earnings.
Brain power will always win out over digging stuff out of the ground.
Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. It is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. My weekly column finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our Stock Screener.
Since two of the stocks I covered in the Stock Screener section had such wild movements in such a short time, I've decided to quickly take a look at all the stocks I've covered here, see what major news recently affected them and how they reacted. All returns are as of May 2nd close.
Since then, TSL returned over 24% and STP returned 5.8%. The main catalyst in the solar energy stock was a court ruling that could pave the way to more regulations and have a positive impact on alternative energy stocks.
It took a couple of days but it seems that today the market has finally started to digest the supreme court ruling that greenhouse gases appearing to fall under the Clean Air Act. While most in Wall Street were first concerned about the adverse ramifications this ruling could have on energy stocks, slowly, its positive impact on alternative energy companies became apparent.
True, no regulatory action has been taken yet, but the ruling, combined with recent Green trends point to that direction and solar energy stocks stand to gain from. Today, indeed, many solar energy stocks are rising 2.5-5% (3:30 p.m.). Specifically, SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up 5.01% to $49.49, Evergreen Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) is up 4.71% to $10.67 and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is up 4.32% to $49.24.
Eric Buscemi thinks SunPower could be a great bargain buy, despite its silicon supply problems. Last week, I wrote extensively on Trina and Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP). While Trina has been phenomenal since its IPO in late December, there could still be some juice left in it. STP, up 2.72% to $35.94 today, is more solid and less volatile, but could still give great returns. Investors prefer SunPower over Suntech at the moment though.
Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. While helping investors pick stocks and narrow down options, it is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. Welcome to my new weekly column that finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our Stock Screener.
A quick recap: With all the talk lately about alternative energy, I wanted to see what the Power Generation & Storage industry has in store. Within the industry, I gave pretty wide criteria with the only constraints being a market capitalization of over $500 million and a profitable 2006.
Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
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Stock screeners are tools that let investors filter through a large number of stocks according to chosen criteria. It is important to remember that a stock screener is just a tool and every investment should be analyzed on its own merits to make sure it fits with your personal portfolio and risk characteristics. My weekly column finds interesting investment opportunities with the help of our 
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